Here's what's at stake for the Colts on Sunday against the 5-2 Houston Texans:
A win moves the Colts to 5-3 and would tie them atop the AFC South with the Texans. Both teams would have 5-3 records; while Houston would own the first-place tiebreaker right now based on conference record, that wouldn't start to matter until December.
A loss would effectively put the Colts three games behind Houston. The Texans would own the head-to-head tiebreaker over the Colts by virtue of sweeping the season series, and they'd improve to 6-2 while the Colts would fall to 4-4.
The easiest way to think about Sunday's game: A win keeps the Colts firmly in the running to win the AFC South for the first time in a decade. A loss means the Colts would have to be three games better than Houston over the final nine games of the 2024 season; without any more head-to-head matchups, a division title would be handily out of their control.
"I do think that's kind of crazy that they always make us play like a division foe twice before Halloween," linebacker Zaire Franklin said. "I don't even know if the Eagles have played the Cowboys yet. You know what I mean? But that's just how the schedule goes for us. But I mean, look it's a division opponent, obviously, like I said, we dropped Week 1. We get a chance to go see them at their house. It's going to be a good time, so just looking forward to it."
Franklin is right here – this is the fourth consecutive season in which the Colts will have played both games against a division opponent before the halfway point of that season. This is quite a scheduling quirk in its own right; it also so happens the Colts have been done playing the defending division champions – the Titans won the AFC South in 2020 and 2021, the Jaguars won it in 2022 and the Texans in 2023 – by Week 8 in each of these seasons.
- 2024: vs. Texans (Week 1), at Texans (Week 8)
- 2023: vs. Jaguars (Week 1), at Jaguars (Week 6)
- 2022: at Jaguars (Week 2), vs. Jaguars (Week 6); vs. Titans (Week 4), at Titans (Week 7)
- 2021: at Titans (Week 3), vs. Titans (Week 8)
Plenty can happen between now and the first weekend of 2025, of course. For example: The Jacksonville Jaguars last year were 8-3 after Week 12 with an effective three-game lead over the Colts; they collapsed to a 9-8 record and ceded the AFC South to the winner of Week 18's Colts-Texans game.
But make no mistake, Sunday feels like a tipping point for the AFC South – even if it barely marks the halfway point of the 2024 season.
"Obviously they got us in the home opener and we have another opportunity to set the score straight and make moves and our way up in the division," defensive tackle DeForest Buckner said. "Obviously we lost to them last year for the division and for the playoff spot. There's a lot riding on these games for sure. I know the guys are doing everything they can to be physically, mentally prepared."
When the Colts have the ball
First things first: Jonathan Taylor is back. The Colts' running back did not carry a game status designation on Friday's final practice report of week 8, clearing the way for Taylor to play for the first time since sustaining an ankle injury in Week 4.
But this is more about the Colts' passing offense against the Texans' defense here.
Only one team (the Minnesota Vikings) has scored more points against the Texans this season than the Colts did in Week 1's 29-27 loss at Lucas Oil Stadium. Those 27 points were the product, either directly or indirectly, of quarterback Anthony Richardson completing three passes that gained at least 50 yards: A 60-yard touchdown to wide receiver Alec Pierce, a 57-yard completion to Pierce and a 54-yard touchdown to wide receiver Ashton Dulin.
Those are the only 50+ yard completions the Texans have allowed this season; they've allowed only two others of 40+ yards. Dialing things back a bit, the Texans have allowed an explosive pass (15+ yards) on just 9.9 percent of opponent attempts, the second-lowest rate in the NFL – and that's despite racing deep passes (20+ air yards) on 15 percent of pass attempts, the third-highest rate in the NFL.
Houston's combination of a mauling pass rush up front and disciplined coverage on the back end have made it difficult for opponents to move the ball through the air – the Texans are second in the NFL in allowing just 5.5 passing yards per play. Defensive end Will Anderson Jr. is tied for sixth in the NFL with 6.5 sacks; he and veteran defensive end Danielle Hunter have helped Houston generate a sack or a quarterback hit on 17.4 percent of opposing dropbacks, the eighth-highest rate in the NFL.
The Texans' secondary, too, is allowing a passer rating of just 86.0 when targeted in coverage, 11th-lowest in the NFL.
When the Texans have the ball
It's not a perfect measure, but there's at least somewhat of a notable correlation between Houston's rushing yards and point totals over their seven games this season:
| Week | Opponent | Rushing yards | Points scored | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | IND | 213 | 29 | W |
| 2 | CHI | 75 | 19 | W |
| 3 | MIN | 38 | 7 | L |
| 4 | JAX | 101 | 24 | W |
| 5 | BUF | 94 | 23 | W |
| 6 | NE | 192 | 41 | W |
| 7 | GB | 142 | 22 | L |
Houston's offense, as a whole, has settled into the middle of the pack in several traditional and advanced stats entering Week 8:
| Stat | # | NFL Rank |
|---|---|---|
| Points/game | 23.6 | 14th |
| Yards/play | 5.4 | 17th |
| Third down conversion rate | 40% | 14th |
| EPA/play | -.009 | 15th |
| Success rate | 33.2% | 19th |
| Scoring drive percentage | 39.8% | 15th |
These numbers – fueled in part by the absence of wide receiver Nico Collins, who will miss Sunday's game while on injured reserve – don't match the reality the Colts operated in this week. Running back Joe Mixon – who missed three games with an injury himself but will play this weekend – gouged the Colts for 159 yards on 30 carries in Week 1, while quarterback C.J. Stroud's 115.9 passer rating from the season opener still is his high water mark for 2024.
"They're obviously very talented," defensive coordinator Gus Bradley said. "The quarterback is extremely good. ... He can put up 350 yards at any time. They've got good skill. I think what's made them even more complete is their run game. Now they can run the ball. Joe Mixon is a great back and someone you've got to be aware of in the run game. They're committed to run the ball and they're committed to take their shot. They're a really well-balanced team that utilizes all their skillsets."
The Colts could get defensive tackle DeForest Buckner (ankle) back for Sunday's game – he's listed as questionable and still needs to be activated off injured reserve – and linebacker EJ Speed, who missed Week 7 with a knee injury, will return against the Texans.
The next 5 games
Beginning Sunday, the Colts' next five games are against the Texans (5-2), Minnesota Vikings (5-2), Buffalo Bills (5-2), New York Jets (2-5) and Detroit Lions (5-1). By current winning percentage, this is another tough stretch of the Colts' season, broken up into an imperfect four quarters:
- Weeks 1-4 (HOU, @GB, CHI, PIT): .704
- Weeks 5-7 (@JAX, @TEN, MIA): .263
- Weeks 8-12 (@HOU, @MIN, BUF, @NYJ, DET): .667
- Weeks 13-18 (@NE, bye, @DEN, TEN, @NYG, JAX): .294
The Colts are 4-1 in their last five games, and every one of their seven games this season has been decided by six or fewer points. Those grind-it-out games may not lead to favorable spots in power rankings from various analysts, but the Colts are confident in their ability to win close games while understanding they need to play better going forward, especially in this upcoming stretch.
"The resilience of this group – we've found ways to win close games," Steichen said. "Obviously, we've had a ton of them. But again, I don't think we've played our best ball and we want to put that together, and this week would be a great weekend to do that. But a lot of faith and trust in our guys like I've said all year. Just finding ways to win has been huge."
