The Detroit Lions will arrive at Lucas Oil Stadium on Sunday as not only one of the best teams in the NFL this season, but as one of the best teams we've seen in recent memory.
Since 2000, Only 10 teams have scored more points through their first 10 games than the Lions (336); that list includes teams quarterbacked by Hall of Famers (Peyton Manning, Kurt Warner), future Hall of Famers (Tom Brady, Drew Brees, Aaron Rodgers) and active MVPs (Patrick Mahomes, Lamar Jackson).
The Lions' +159 point differential is fifth-best over the first 10 games of a season in the last 25 years; they're just the fourth team in NFL history to win at least three games by 38 points in a single season.
The last team to win three games by 38 or more points in a season, though, was the 2021 New England Patriots – who, you might remember, lost to the Colts at Lucas Oil Stadium in Week 15 of that season.
The point being: The 9-1 Detroit Lions may look like a juggernaut. But the NFL is a finicky, week-to-week league, where any team can win – or lose – at any point. More importantly, though, the Colts enter Week 12 confident in their ability to compete with Detroit's blend of physicality and explosiveness on both sides of the ball.
"We know we're getting ready to play a physical team, so they're going to bring it to us," quarterback Anthony Richardson said. "We got to bring it to them."
When the Colts have the ball
The Lions have scored 30 or more points in five of their last seven games, but the Colts' offense is not approaching Week 12 focusing on out-scoring Ben Johnson's ruthless Detroit offense.
"I mean at times like if you see it like that, there's definitely an edge of you trying to push and do a little bit more, but I think that's a negative, honestly," Richardson said. "You're trying to like play up to their standards. They know that they're an explosive offense, but no, we can't necessarily try to outscore them. We just got to play our game and just make it work."
For the Colts' offense, the bigger challenge will be facing a Lions defense that enters Week 10 with the fifth-most takeaways (19) in the NFL, a number propped up by 14 interceptions, second-most in the league behind the Minnesota Vikings.
Safety Kerby Joseph has half of those picks; his seven interceptions lead the NFL. Fellow safety Brian Branch is tied for fourth in the league with four interceptions, and his 13 passes defensed (interceptions + pass break-ups) are second. Their 11 interceptions – with seven games to play – are third-most for any safety unit in the last five seasons, behind only the 2022 San Francisco 49ers (13) and 2020 Kansas City Chiefs (12).
"They do a really good job within their coverages of putting guys in the position to make plays," offensive coordinator Jim Bob Cooter said. "They're pretty aggressive with it. They'll take some chances when they can see them. Joseph's done a really nice job – he appears to have a really good nose for the ball. He really understands passing concepts from what I can see. He's able to sort of adjust his coverage requirements or coverage rules to go best attack the offensive passing concept he sees. ... He's somebody we've got to know where he's at on the field at all times because he is doing such a nice job this year. He's a difference-maker for that defense, and they're playing really good defense football overall, but he's doing a great job back there for them."
Seven of the Lions' 14 interceptions have come on throws between 10 and 19 yards beyond the line of scrimmage, and opposing quarterbacks have a 56.0 passer rating when attacking that depth, either on over the middle or outside the numbers throws. That's an area of the field where Richardson thrived against the New York Jets last week – he completed all seven of his passes for 115 yards with a passer rating of 118.8 on those throws, per Pro Football Focus.
On the ground, while the Lions' run defense is fifth in the NFL in total rushing yards allowed per game (94.8), that may partly be a function of how many blowout wins they've had this year. On a per-snap basis, Detroit's still been good against the run – 4.3 yards/attempt, 11th – but 13.5 percent of opponent rushes have gained 10 or more yards, 19th in the NFL.
And zooming back out, the Lions are situationally one of the best defenses in the NFL, leading them to hold opponents well under 20 points per game:
| Stat | # | NFL rank |
|---|---|---|
| Third down conversion % | 30.4% | 1st |
| Fourth down conversion % | 41.2% | 6th |
| Red zone touchdown rate | 42.9% | 3rd |
| Goal to go touchdown rate | 53.3% | 3rd |
| Points/game | 17.7 | 5th |
Regardless of how good Detroit's defense has been, though, the Colts will lean into what they've done well this season. For most of 2024, that's meant an explosive running game led by running back Jonathan Taylor, whose 21 rushes of 10 or more yards are tied for ninth-most in the NFL. And, on Sunday against the Jets, it meant Richardson leading scoring drives with his arm (20/30 passing for 272 yards) and legs (two rushing touchdowns), even in the absence of an efficient run game.
"He was decisive throwing the football," Steichen said. "The accuracy showed up. He was calm in the pocket. He didn't seem sped up. The offensive line protection was great. Some of those passes he threw were big-time throws. So, we've got to continue that."
When the Colts are on defense
A hallmark of Detroit's season has been throwing exploratory jabs in the first quarter, then landing haymakers in the second and third quarters:
| Quarter | Scoring drive % (NFL rank) |
|---|---|
| 1 | 26.9% (20th) |
| 2 | 65.7% (1st) |
| 3 | 48.3% (4th) |
| 4 | 29.4% (23rd) |
The Lions have scored 147 points in the second quarter (no other team has scored more than 112) and 92 points in the third quarter (behind only the Cincinnati Bengals, who've played one more game).
Detroit's offense is powered by a top-level offensive line and a run game that's both efficient (with David Montgomery) and explosive (with Jahmyr Gibbs). The Lions' passing offense has been lethal playing off the run game – quarterback Jared Goff leads the NFL with 1,218 passing yards on play action; he's averaging four more yards per completion on play action versus straight dropbacks.
"Their offense is obviously elite right now," Steichen said. "I mean, they're scoring 33 points a game. Quarterback is playing at a high level. The two wideouts (Amon-Ra St. Brown and Jameson Williams) are legit. The two backs are legit. The offensive line is legit."
A good offensive line, a dynamic run game and a tuned-up passing game combining to score a ton of points might make it seem like the Lions do not have any shortcomings on offense. But the Colts this week have dove deep into the film to see if there's anything they can try to exploit on Sunday.
"Everybody has a weakness," linebacker Zaire Franklin said. "It's just when you play in this game in the league for so long, it's just about being able to take advantage of the opportunities that you get. I think they do a great job of complementing themselves. I think they do a good job of self-scout and trying to not give away as many tendencies, but nobody's perfect."
The problem is the Lions have found ways to win even when their offense short-circuits.
Since 1983, NFL teams are 5-263 on the road when committing at least five turnovers and possessing the ball for under 28 minutes. The Lions, as you might've guessed, are one of those five teams to win: Despite Goff throwing five interceptions on Sunday Night Football against the Houston Texans at NRG Stadium in Week 10, the Lions erased a 16-point halftime deficit to win, 26-23, on a walk-off 52-yard field goal.
"They're really dangerous – in that I think they're lowest point total, it comes in the first quarter," defensive coordinator Gus Bradley said. "They're very explosive in the second, the third quarter. And we mentioned that here – Houston had what, five takeaways, and they still scored 25 points? I don't know how else to say it. They're explosive at running back, receiver, their quarterback is playing very efficient. They're protecting well, they're getting explosive plays both in the run and the pass game, and they can put points up in a hurry. Tennessee, what's ranked one or two in the league I think in defense, and they got 50 on them. So, they're just a team that presents a great challenge because they've got so many threats and they're really operating really efficiently right now."
Sunday's game, then, could come down to if the Colts are able to play complementary football. The Texans, in losing to Detroit, didn't score a single point in the second half, opening the door for the Lions to storm back. It's one thing to stop the Lions' offense; it's another to stop them for four quarters; and it's another to do enough on offense to make that all count.
"They're playing really good football, complementary football," Steichen said. "But the great thing is we get to play them at home, which we're really excited about and excited for the opportunity and the challenge."
