For the scoreboard watchers: The Colts didn't get the help they probably needed on Thursday night.
The Los Angeles Chargers' win over the Denver Broncos made an already-narrow path to the playoffs even tighter; the Colts enter Week 16 with a 9 percent chance to play in the postseason, per the New York Times. That path always required the Colts to win out. Now, one of two things has to happen in addition to the Colts winning their final three games:
- The Chargers lose to the New England Patriots (3-11) and Las Vegas Raiders (2-12), or
- The Broncos lose to the Cincinnati Bengals (6-8) and Kansas City Chiefs (13-1), and the Bengals OR Miami Dolphins (6-8) win their remaining games, creating a three-way tie of 9-8 teams involving the Colts, Broncos and Bengals/Dolphins, in which the Colts would have the tiebreaker based on AFC record
Realistically, the Colts probably needed the Chargers (9-6) to lose to the Broncos (9-6) on Thursday. Instead, the Broncos were out-scored 21-3 between the NFL's first successful free kick since 1976 and a Justin Herbert touchdown pass late in the fourth quarter, squandering an 11-point lead to lose, 34-27, at SoFi Stadium.
So instead of needing just one other thing to break their way down the stretch, the Colts now need plenty of aid for their final three games to matter in the AFC playoff race.
"At the end of the day, you can't hope for other people — you can't keep hoping on other people to get ourselves in. We gotta help ourselves," defensive tackle DeForest Buckner said. "And that's handling business this weekend against the Titans, and then next week with the Giants and the week after finishing off with the Jags. We gotta take it one week at a time and do our part, and at the end of the season, however it shakes out, with a little bit of hope and a little bit of help, maybe it does work out. But at the end of the day we have to do our part first."
None of this, of course, matters if the Colts can't take care of a 3-11 Tennessee Titans team that's lost five of its last six games and made a change at quarterback this week, benching 2023 second-round pick Will Levis for veteran backup Mason Rudolph. The Colts are on a three-game winning streak against the Titans, but those wins were by three, three and seven points; the last time the Colts beat the Titans by multiple scores was Week 10 of the 2020 season.
"We gotta control what we can control," head coach Shane Steichen said, "and what we can control is (playing) the Tennessee Titans."
But regardless of who the Colts play – every team left on their schedule has at least 11 losses – it's more about how the Colts play down the stretch rather than their opponent.
The Colts committed five back-breaking turnovers and were flagged for eight deflating penalties in their Week 15 loss to the Broncos. In six games this season against teams with a losing record, the Colts have averaged 1.3 turnovers per game; in eight games against teams with a winning record, the Colts averaged 2.1 turnovers per game.
The Colts are 5-1 against teams with a losing record (the only loss being in Week 5 at Jacksonville) and 1-7 against teams with a winning record (the only win being in Week 4 over Pittsburgh). But the Colts also haven't won a game by more than six points this year; their last four losses have been by eight points (at Minnesota), 10 points (vs. Buffalo), 18 points (vs. Detroit) and 18 points (Denver).
"We've got to raise our standard," Steichen said. "It starts with myself, everything. We've got to be better. I told the guys (this week), man, we've got to play for each other. We've got to play together and attack every single day to get better so we can play a complementary football game."
Until the Colts have nothing left to play for, the only way they can – and will – operate is believing that winning their final three games will give them a shot to make the playoffs.
"We know we still have a chance, a slim chance," tight end Mo Alie-Cox said, "but a chance is a chance."
Still, even if the Colts are eliminated from the playoffs at some point before Week 18, the mentality of this team will need to remain resolute. Veterans around the locker room this week have emphasized how nothing is guaranteed in the NFL except the game in front of you – and with three more Sundays left this regular season, these final opportunities will be important whether the outcome matters in the AFC playoff picture or not.
"I think the motivation going forward is like, 'Hey, we've got a chance to go play the Tennessee Titans at home and beat them.' You know? That's our motivation, and that's the way you've got to look at it," Steichen said. "We all have jobs to do, and we've got to have a great week of preparation…The motivation for us is we need some help to get in this thing and we all know that, but we've got to go do our jobs and we've got to have a hell of a week of preparation getting ready to go for Tennessee."
View our favorite photos from the week leading up to the Colts' matchup versus the Tennessee Titans on Sunday at Lucas Oil Stadium