Week 13's Colts-Patriots game will be the first meeting between these two teams without Bill Belichick patrolling the sidelines since 1999 – when both starting quarterbacks for this Sunday's matchup were about two and a half years away from being born.
The only starting quarterback younger than Anthony Richardson (22 years old, born on May 20, 2002) in the NFL this year is the Patriots' Drake Maye (22 years old, born on Aug. 30, 2002). Richardson was the 2023 No. 4 overall pick, Maye the 2024 No. 3 overall pick. And, like Richardson, Maye has shown flashes of brilliance this season – even as the Patriots have sunk to a 3-8 record.
"He is a first-year player, but I do see the poise of a guy that's had some games under his belt," defensive coordinator Gus Bradley said. "It doesn't faze him much, some of the things he sees. If he does get pressure, he'll come back the next play and make a great throw. So, I think we'll learn a little bit on the run while playing him because of the number of plays that are on tape."
Maye has specifically shown a bit of a playmaking streak, especially when he gets outside the pocket. On plays charted by Pro Football Focus as "scramble drills," Maye has completed five of 11 passes for 110 yards with two touchdowns; his passer rating of 121.2 on those throws is fifth-highest in the NFL.
And that's just accounting for when he throws a pass – Maye has proven to be one of the NFL's most effective players when rushing on a scramble this year. Only Washington's Jayden Daniels has more rushing yards on scrambles, and Maye owns the highest yards per rushing attempt on scrambles among regular starting quarterbacks this season:
Player | Team | Scrambles | Yards | Yards/attempt | First downs | 10+ yard scarmbles |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Jayden Daniels | WAS | 48 | 383 | 8.0 | 20 | 12 |
Brock Purdy | SF | 37 | 258 | 7.0 | 19 | 11 |
Bo Nix | DEN | 34 | 236 | 6.9 | 17 | 9 |
Caleb Williams | CHI | 31 | 245 | 7.9 | 15 | 12 |
Jalen Hurts | PHI | 31 | 274 | 8.8 | 16 | 8 |
Drake Maye | NE | 30 | 288 | 9.6 | 15 | 14 |
C.J. Stroud | HOU | 30 | 208 | 6.9 | 11 | 7 |
Josh Allen | BUF | 29 | 235 | 8.1 | 11 | 8 |
Lamar Jackson | BAL | 29 | 221 | 7.6 | 11 | 10 |
Patrick Mahomes | KC | 29 | 252 | 8.7 | 16 | 7 |
"He's very accurate," Bradley said. "He can make plays on the run. I think he's really gotten better and better and more comfortable week after week in the system. So, I mean his accuracy – there's a reason why he was taken high, right? He's got good poise. Nothing seems to bother him. He extends plays, can make plays on the run. I think he's getting better with each game. We expect to see a really good version of him."
Keeping Maye contained has been a focus of the Colts' front this week.
"He's making good progress for sure," head coach Shane Steichen said. "I think he does a really good job of keeping his eyes down the field. I think he's third in the league right now in scrambles for yards. And so, he's doing a good job finding a lane if he does have one to take off, but he also – if he doesn't have the lane, he does a good job of creating with his legs and finding the open receivers. So, we've got to do a good job of keeping him in the pocket whether we're rushing with four or five. Affecting the quarterback is going to be big for us."
Maye's playmaking ability hasn't translated to the Patriots' offense, collectively, having a ton of success. Since he took over for Jacoby Brissett as New England's starting quarterback in Week 6, the Patriots are 27th in yards per play (4.9) and 27th in scoring drive percentage (28.6 percent), though those have improved a bit from Weeks 1-5, when they were 31st in yards per play (4.2) and 30th in scoring drive percentage (26.4 percent).
The point here being, though: Maye has put plenty of good things on tape this season, and the Colts are approaching him this week believing he can make game-changing plays if given an opportunity to do so.
"I've got a lot of respect for him and I think his game will only get better and better," Bradley said. "I think probably teams that have played him in their division for the first time compared to the second time seeing him, probably would say the same thing because that's what shows up on tape."
When the Colts have the ball
Expected Points Added is an advanced stat that measures how well a team does compared to expectation (based on down and distance) on a per-play basis. It is, in a way, a more accurate way to gauge a defense than just points allowed per game – the Tennessee Titans, for example, have the sixth-worst points per game allowed average (26.4), but a number of those have come on pick-sixes and short fields after offensive turnovers.
Why does this stat matter here? Because for just the second time this season, the Colts will face a defense that does not rank in the top half of the league in EPA per play allowed:
Week | Opponent | EPA/play allowed | NFL rank |
---|---|---|---|
1 | Houston Texans | -.109 | 5th |
2 | Green Bay Packers | -.062 | 11th |
3 | Chicago Bears | -.071 | 7th |
4 | Pittsburgh Steelers | -.096 | 6th |
5 | Jacksonville Jaguars | .158 | 32nd |
6 | Tennessee Titans | -.070 | 8th |
7 | Miami Dolphins | -.060 | 13th |
8 | Houston Texans | -.109 | 5th |
9 | Minnesota Vikings | -.150 | 1st |
10 | Buffalo Bills | -.068 | 9th |
11 | New York Jets | -.023 | 14th |
12 | Detroit Lions | -.135 | 3rd |
13 | New England Patriots | .021 | 21st |
The reprieve will only last one game – the Colts' next opponent, the Denver Broncos, are second in EPA/play allowed (-.136) – but it is worth noting how good the defenses the Colts have faced this year have been.
And while the Patriots may look like an exception on a spreadsheet, the Colts see a defense that's retained some tenets of Belichick's defense with first-year head coach (and longtime Patriots player/coach) Jerod Mayo putting his own stamp on it.
"You're seeing a little bit of both," offensive coordinator Jim Bob Cooter said. "Jerod's been there a long, long time. ... Obviously, a great player in the league, great player for a long time, and has really become a great coach. You know, has done so much of those things at New England that we've all seen over the years. But anytime I think you take over an offense or a defense, you want to put your spin on things and we're seeing a little bit of that with those guys. But I think when you do that, you don't want to get rid of too many old things that you do really, really well. I think that's what I see them trying to balance and work on. And they've been playing good defense around there for a long, long time. Gosh, they're tough. Tough to move the ball on. Tough to score a lot of points on. They play you really, really tough and they have for a long time."