Over the last three weeks, the Colts' defense has started to form an identity – and it's one built, in part, by a more aggressive approach from defensive coordinator Gus Bradley.
"Identity is what we've been working on this season, getting off to a shabby start and trying to tighten up around the rough edges," cornerback Kenny Moore II said. "Just having that momentum, the attitude and the personality that we want as a defense, you want to carry that over to each game."
Over the last three weeks, the Colts' defense has put up some impressive underlying numbers, with effective blitzes driving some of that success:
| Stat | When blitzing (NFL rank) | Overall (NFL rank) |
|---|---|---|
| Yards per play | 2.7 (1st) | 5.0 (9th) |
| EPA/play | -0.588 (2nd) | -0.128 (5th) |
| Pressure rate | 55.6% (3rd) | 35.7% (10th) |
| Sack rate | 18.5% (1st) | 7.1% (15th) |
The Colts' defense isn't predicated on sending lots of blitzes – their blitz rate over the last three weeks is 24.1 percent, 28th in the NFL, and right around their 23.4 percent blitz rate in Weeks 1-6 – but the creativity of those blitzes has been turned up over the last few weeks. One notable thing here is the Colts have sent six simulated pressures (four players rushing the passer but from a blitz look, usually with a defensive lineman dropping into coverage and a linebacker or defensive back rushing the passer) in the last three weeks.
Bradley, in his three years as defensive coordinator, had called for one simulated pressure prior to Week 7, which came in Week 8 of the 2022 season against the Washington Commanders, per Pro Football Focus.
And while six total simulated pressures aren't why the Colts' defense has had more success over the last few weeks, just that dash of unpredictability has helped the creative five- and six-man pressures Bradley's called for be more effective. That goes for both the guys blitzing – like Moore and linebackers Zaire Franklin and E.J. Speed – and for the team's defensive linemen, who as a product of these looks are getting more one-on-one opportunities.
"You're really trying to create as many one-on-ones as you can but you can't always bring six guys," defensive line coach Charlie Partridge said. "You just can't do it. Quarterbacks in the NFL are just too good. So you got to simulate at times that six are coming and kick guys into coverage. And then if you always drop out the same guys, the problem is then it becomes easier for the O-line to pick it up and also easier for the quarterback to identify what coverage you're going into.
"… You're trying to create one-on-ones and also hopefully get the quarterback to hitch, hopefully he sees a coverage he wasn't anticipating, pulls the ball down for a fraction of a second and hopefully that hitch gets us a chance to get there."
Part of the Colts sending more exotic pressures has been leaning in to the skills of their players on defense. Franklin and Speed are particularly adept at lining up in a mug look (over the center's outside/inside shoulder in the A-gap) and either blitzing, dropping into zone coverage or turning their back to the play and looking to pick up crossing routes. Rookie defensive end Laiatu Latu's feel for rushing the passer has led him to have success attacking opposing offensive lines from depth – he helped create a sack against the Minnesota Vikings when he lined up off the ball behind Franklin, looped around the left of the formation and forced quarterback Sam Darnold to step up into the waiting arms of defensive end Kwity Paye.
It helps that the Colts' defense has got healthier recently, of course – they got Paye and Moore back in Week 6 and Buckner back in Week 8. But there's also something to be said for the sprinkle of creativity the Colts' defensive coaches have put on their scheme (assistant defensive line coach Matt Raich, for example, is charged with drawing up exotic looks for the D-line).
"Any time I get to mess with the O-linemen's blocking assignments, I always try to," Franklin said." I like listening to them and confusing them as much as I possibly can. ... I think it speaks the personnel we have on the defensive side."
The question for the Colts this week, then, is if they can continue being more aggressive – and continue having success with it – against Josh Allen and the Buffalo Bills' offense.
| Stat | # | NFL rank |
|---|---|---|
| Points/game | 28.9 | 4th |
| Yards/play | 5.8 | 9th |
| EPA/play | 0.146 | 3rd |
| Success rate | 38.6% | 6th |
| Scoring drive rate | 49.5% | 3rd |
Allen enters the second half of the 2024 season firmly in the NFL MVP race. The 6-foot-5, 237 pound quarterback has completed 64.1 percent of his passes for 2,001 yards with 17 touchdowns, two interceptions and a passer rating of 105.8; he's also carried the ball 47 times for 211 yards with three touchdowns.
"I just think he's playing at a different level this season – just as his efficiency, his decision making," Franklin said. "I mean obviously he's one of the best quarterbacks in the league. And he's just – he's Mr. Do Everything for their team. So obviously, having success with them, it starts with limiting his production and his success. And I think we got (an) opportunity to do that."
Allen has a passer rating of 125.8 against the blitz this season, third-highest in the NFL, and he hasn't been pressured on 72 of his 105 dropbacks against the blitz, per Pro Football Focus. When Allen has been pressured (on all dropbacks, not just against the blitz), he's completed just 40 percent of his passes – fifth-lowest in the NFL – but he's scrambled 15 times and has only been sacked on 11 plays, the second-lowest total for any quarterback with at least 80 dropbacks under pressure.
It's one thing to get pressure on Allen; it's another to actually make that pressure count.
"There's no doubt he can beat you with his legs, and I'm not talking about running the ball," Bradley said. "He makes plays on the run, but he extends plays. You see a lot of the explosive plays off of that. So, you've got to have really good awareness where he's at – just to count on the four guys rushing to squeeze the air out of the pocket, and to get him down is difficult. So, he would be a guy that when you talk about keys to victory, you'd say, 'Boy, we've got to really be aware of him, not only his skillset as a passer, his accuracy, his execution – but also his legs I think are another variable that you really have to be aware of.'"
So this Sunday will be a major test for Bradley's defense. Can they continue this three-week run they've been on against one of the NFL's best quarterbacks and best offenses?
"I definitely think the last few weeks defensively we've started to put together a little bit of our identity, put together a little bit of some momentum," Franklin said. "Building late in the season, we told ourselves we want to start playing our best ball in November late in the season, and I think we're starting to come around to form. I think we've got to follow it up with a great performance against a really good offense on Sunday."
