Amidst the jolt of a switch at starting quarterback, from Anthony Richardson to Joe Flacco, the reality facing the 2024 Colts is this: Every single one of this team's goals remains achievable.
"We're trying to make the playoffs," head coach Shane Steichen said. "We're trying to make a push right now going into November and December and feel that Joe gives us the best chance to do that."
If the Colts are going to make that push, it'll require them to navigate a difficult stretch of their schedule – one which began with last weekend's 23-20 loss to the Texans, which ceded the head-to-head tiebreaker to Houston. Meaning: If the Colts are to win the AFC South for a first time in a decade, they cannot do it while having the same record as the Texans.
The Colts' gauntlet continues Sunday night on the road against a 5-2 Minnesota Vikings team that features arguably the best wide receiver in the NFL (Justin Jefferson) and an aggressive defense masterminded by Brian Flores. Let's start with the challenge the Colts will face against Flores' defense.
When the Colts have the ball
No team in the NFL blitzes at a higher rate than the Vikings (50.8 percent), and those blitzes are not your garden-variety pressures. An example of how those shake out: Outside linebacker Andrew Van Ginkel is one of 14 players in NFL history, and the first since 2014, to have at least five sacks and two pick-sixes in a season. Minnesota's edge defenders have dropped into coverage 140 times this season, easily the highest total in the NFL, while Vikings defensive backs have blitzed 60 times, second only to the similarly-aggressive Tampa Bay Buccaneers, per Pro Football Focus.
The point being: Even if you expect Flores to dial up a blitz on a given play, it's difficult to sort out who's rushing the passer and who's dropping into a passing lane.
"These guys are doing a phenomenal job," offensive coordinator Jim Bob Cooter said. "It's a top-level defense. There's a lot of accolades out there about them, and they've earned them all. It's a tough defense. It's a great challenge for us. It's going to be really fun. They've got a bunch of really good players on that defense and then schematically, they put them in really good positions to go have success. Whether it's a pressure situation or a cover situation or a front situation, those guys are mixing it up pretty good and letting their guys play. The tape doesn't lie when you see some of the big plays they've made and the problems they've created for offenses, and all the stats and all that, that comes with it. So really good defense – is going to be a heck of a challenge this week."
Minnesota's defense has allowed fewer than 20 points in four of its seven games, though it's allowed opponents to score 29, 31 and 30 points in three of its last four games against the Green Bay Packers, Detroit Lions and Los Angeles Rams, respectively.
Throwing out the Packers game – Minnesota went up 28-7 then fended off a late Green Bay comeback – it's notable how well the veteran quarterbacks they faced fared against the blitz.
| Quarterback | Completions/attempts when blitzed | Yards when blitzed | TDs when blitzed | Passer rating when blitzed | Sacks when blitzed |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jared Goff | 15/16 | 165 | 1 | 130.5 | 1 |
| Matthew Stafford | 10/13 | 128 | 0 | 107.2 | 0 |
All other quarterbacks, when the Vikings sent a blitz this season, totaled two touchdowns, five interceptions (neither Goff nor Stafford threw a pick), 5.7 yards per pass attempt, a passer rating of 64.5 and were sacked 13 times.
But Minnesota's defense is more than just a blitz-heavy disruptive juggernaut. The Vikings enter Week 9 allowing 3.9 yards per rushing attempt, third-lowest in the NFL, and only 13 carries against them have gone for 10 or more yards. For comparison: Jonathan Taylor his averaging 4.9 yards per attempt and has 15 carries of 10 or more yards.
Taylor on Sunday night will be tasked not only with breaking through a stout Vikings front, but staying home in pass protection to keep Flacco upright.
"They've got a lot of different looks," Taylor said. "We're going to have to be on our alignment and assignment. I think that's going to be a big key for us, to try to have your eyes a lot of different places – and not to bring anything super unique, but they want to test you and your protection. So, we've got to make sure we're on our alignment and assignment because they're going to test it."
When the Vikings have the ball
Justin Jefferson will go into his 68th career game averaging 97.7 receiving yards per game, which is the highest rate in NFL history. He has significantly more games with 80 or more yards (43) than he does under 80 yards (24); he's scored at least one receiving touchdown in 30 games. He's one of those inevitable players around the league – no matter what you do, he's going to find a way to impact whatever game in which he plays.
"Tremendous ball skills, really, really good route runner," defensive coordinator Gus Bradley said. "They have an intent – I mean, you'll see him on tape getting doubled, and they'll still try to get him the ball because they have that much faith in him. He can change the outcome of the game very quickly. So, I would say just his overall skillset, speed, route running, ball skills like I mentioned. He's just a tremendous player, tremendous player. The more and more we're watching him, I could see why he's got all the accolades."
Whether he's getting the ball no matter the coverage, or pulling extra defenders toward him to give other pass-catchers opportunities, the gravity Jefferson brings to Minnesota's offense is immense. The Vikings enter Week 9 averaging 7.9 yards per pass, fifth in the NFL, and are seventh in points scored per game (26.9). Quarterback Sam Darnold, too, is fourth in the NFL with a 107.2 passer rating, right between Josh Allen (107.6) and Joe Burrow (106.5).
"I think (Darnold) processes things really well," Bradley said. "I think that they have done a good job with him as far as the route concepts and things like that. He's always been talented, but I think he's in a good groove right now. He is more athletic than you think. He can run, he can extend plays, but I think that he's a very process person, and I think in that system with his reads and things like that – so he just does a good job executing it. He's playing with a lot of poise right now and with a lot of confidence."
The Colts, meanwhile, go into Week 9 allowing 21.5 points per game, 13th in the NFL.
