Drafting Tyler Warren was always the Occam's Razor outcome for the Colts in the 2025 NFL Draft.
The Colts had a need at tight end. Warren, the 2024 Mackey Award winner and a thousand-yard pass-catcher at Penn State, wasn't just regarded as a top tight end in this year's draft class – he was regarded as one of the top prospects in the 2025 NFL Draft.
NFL.com's Daniel Jeremiah ranked Warren sixth on his big board. The Athletic's Dane Brugler had him seventh, as did ESPN's Mel Kiper Jr. Pro Football Focus summed up Warren with this glowing review: "Tyler Warren is everything NFL offenses look for at tight end: a do-it-all player with day-one impact in the run and pass games."
You didn't have look hard to find a deluge of mock drafts predicting the Colts would land Warren. Out of the 167 ones we collected here at Colts.com, 57 – easily the most for any player – had the Colts drafting Warren.
It almost got to a point where the intersection of need, talent and fit became too obvious: Of course the Colts would get Warren. Provided he was still available at No. 14.
Maybe there were some nervy moments in the Colts' war room Thursday night, like when the Chicago Bears took a tight end – Michigan's Colston Loveland – with the 10th overall pick. But the Colts stayed patient, trusting their process and research.
For the Colts in the first round of the 2025 NFL Draft, the simplest explanation turned out to be the correct one. It didn't take long for general manager Chris Ballard to get Warren on the phone after the Miami Dolphins turned in their selection at No. 13 overall (Michigan defensive tackle Kenneth Grant).
Mock drafts often get things wrong; this year, any expert who didn't overthink it with the Colts' selection turned out to be right.
"I'll tell you this, the last time I felt that good about pulling a pick, and I felt good about all of them, but was Quenton (Nelson)," Ballard said. "Like, it was easy. It was easy. There wasn't a lot of discussion."
Four and a half months from now, Warren will make his NFL debut for the Colts. He'll do so with sky-high expectations, which come with anyone drafted in the first round – let alone a guy who had 104 receptions for 1,233 yards with 13 total touchdowns and was a First Team All-American in his final collegiate season.
But Warren's job now is earning his place in the Colts' offensive ecosystem. And the learning curve for rookie tight ends is steep: From 2000-2024, there were 28 tight ends selected in the first round of a draft. Only seven – 25 percent – had 500 or more yards as a rookie: Jeremy Shockey (894, 2002), Dustin Keller (535, 2008), Evan Engram (722, 2017), Noah Fant (562, 2019), Kyle Pitts (1,026, 2021), Dalton Kincaid (673, 2023) and Brock Bowers (1,194, 2024).
Warren, though, did so much at Penn State – who relied on him as the engine of an offense that reached the College Football Playoff semifinals – that the Colts are confident in his ability to acclimate to the pro game relatively quickly.
"None of them are finished products coming into the league – they all have to learn," Ballard said. "And he's still got some growth to do. But one, it tells you about his football IQ to be able to line up at tight end, line up wide, line up at quarterback, line up at fullback — I mean, they put a lot on that kid's plate and he handled it mentally. So that just tell you that he's going to be able to handle a high volume on Sunday of whatever we ask him to do."
The Colts view the 6-foot-5, 256 pound Warren, though, not as someone who can immediately step in and hit some sort of statistical benchmark. They see him as a complement to an offense that already had an intriguing group of weapons, like wide receivers Michael Pittman Jr., Josh Downs, Alec Pierce and Adonai Mitchell, plus running back Jonathan Taylor.
The stats Warren puts up, maybe, are important – but so is the gravitational pull his presence may have on a defense, which could open more things up for the rest of the Colts' offense.
"The ability to really threaten the middle of the field, I think it's going to open some things up for us offensively," Ballard said. "Plus being a really big target, I mean, I think that's a plus. It's kind of one of those guys that's always open, you know? That's part of his uniqueness. Like, his hands are pretty rare. I thought he had the best hands of any player in the draft. He's a unique dude."
Warren, though, proved to be more than just a pass-catcher during his college career. He rushed for 218 yards and four touchdowns on 26 rushing attempts in 2024 at Penn State, and his versatility offers tantalizing upside in the red zone. The Colts scored a touchdown on 54 percent of their red zone possessions in 2024, good for 22nd in the NFL – a percentage that, if it goes up, could have a significantly positive impact on the Colts' record in 2025.
"You can do a lot with him," Ballard said. "He's excellent inside the 10 and five because of the things you can do with him not only throwing the football, but running the football. That's going to be an added advantage for our offense, I think the things Shane can do with him."
Warren, again, won't be handed a starting job as a rookie. He'll have to compete with the Colts' returning tight ends, a group which includes strong run blockers in Mo Alie-Cox and Drew Ogletree and a speedy pass-catcher in Will Mallory who the team believes still has upside.
Still, those three returning players combined for 25 receptions for 285 yards and two touchdowns in 2024; Kylen Granson, who signed with the Philadelphia Eagles as a free agent, led Colts tight ends with 14 receptions for 182 yards last year.
"We didn't get enough production from them," Ballard said a few days after the season ended in January. "I will say this, they did a very good job blocking in the run game. They're excellent blockers, but our inability to control the middle of the field, which we've got to be able to do, I've got to be able to give Shane and (the coaches) a guy that can really control the middle of the field that teams have to account for and defend. I just haven't been able to do that. That's not a slight against our guys. They're good football players, but really having a receiving target that the defense has to prepare for – you'd like to be able to find and get."
The Colts' hope is they found that guy in Warren who can, first and foremost, control the middle of the field. But beyond that, Ballard has a few times mentioned the need for a do-it-all tight end – a guy who can both catch passes and block in the run game – as something the Colts have lacked since Jack Doyle retired after the 2021 season.
This is what Ballard said on Monday he hoped to find in a tight end:
"To be able to play on all three downs, to be able to be functional in the run game to where you don't necessarily know it's always a pass when he's in the game, and then to be able to finish and make plays at critical times and have him give the quarterback an option in the middle of the field."
And if it sounds like Ballard was describing Tyler Warren right there, three days before drafting the Penn State tight end – well, maybe it really was as obvious as it seemed.
