Consider this your annual reminder that 1) mock drafts are an inexact science and 2) teams operate with much more – much more – information than is accessible to the general public.
Even with all that information teams have, though, there's plenty of uncertainty circulating around NFL war rooms on draft night. A classic sliding doors moment happened last year when the Atlanta Falcons selected quarterback Michael Penix Jr. with the No. 8 overall pick – this after signing Kirk Cousins to a sizable contract in free agency a month prior. The ripple effects of that pick were felt throughout the first round; when the Colts selected defensive end Laiatu Latu with the No. 15 overall pick, he was the first defensive player off the board.
"There's a reason nobody gets mock drafts right," general manager Chris Ballard said. "Like there is, every year. Now everybody tries – but there's a reason. Nobody has a crystal ball to know exactly what's going to happen on draft day. You have to be able to adjust and work through the problems quickly in your mind, how you're going to adjust on draft day."
Last year, only five of the 166 mock drafts we compiled in our weekly roundups had the Colts taking Latu. Inevitably, too, when there's a "surprise" pick, it leads to questions on if a team reached for a prospect or not. That analysis before, during or after a draft, though, does not impact the choices the Colts – or any other team, for that matter – will make.
"In the first round, you can already see how we have it stacked versus how the outside world has it stacked. I promise you, it is not the same," Ballard said. "It's not – they don't have anything on the line. Like I always laugh when everybody says, 'Well, you reached or you took him too high.' Well, by whose standard? Whose standard is that criticism coming from? So, we line it up and we draft them as we think is best for our team."
With that being said, zooming out on a wide scope of mock drafts – compiled from the Senior Bowl in January through the eve of the draft in April – does give us a list of names Colts fans should know heading into Thursday.
Before we get to the list, though, here are few more mock selections we're adding to our list that came in between Monday's roundup and Wednesday morning:
Pick (No. 10 overall, trade up with Chicago Bears): Colston Loveland (TE, Michigan)
Expert: Peter Schrager, ESPN
Date: April 23
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Pick (No. 6 overall, trade up with Las Vegas Raiders): Tyler Warren (TE, Penn State)
Expert: Conor Orr, Sports Illustrated
Date: April 22
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Pick: Tyler Warren (TE, Penn State)
Expert: Gordon McGuinness, Pro Football Focus
Date: April 22
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Pick: Will Johnson (CB, Michigan)
Experts: Nate Tice & Charles McDonald, Yahoo Sports
Date: April 22
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Pick (No. 9 overall, trade up with New Orleans Saints): Tyler Warren (TE, Penn State)
Expert: Diante Lee, The Ringer
Date: April 21
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With these now set, the final count from the 167 mocks we collected over the last three months:
- Penn State TE Tyler Warren: 57 mocks
- Michigan TE Colston Loveland: 50
- Alabama G Tyler Booker: 7
- Michigan CB Will Johnson: 7
- Mizzou T Armand Membou: 7
- Georgia S Malaki Starks: 7
- Alabama LB Jihaad Campbell: 6
- Texas CB Jahdae Barron: 5
- South Carolina S Nick Emmanwori: 3
- Georgia DE Mykel Williams: 3
- Mizzou WR Luther Burden III: 2
- LSU T Will Campbell: 2
- Ole Miss DT Walter Nolen: 2
- Tennessee DE James Pearce Jr.: 2
- Iowa State CB Darien Porter: 2
- Texas T Kelvin Banks Jr.: 1
- Michigan DT Kenneth Grant: 1
- Ohio State G/T Donovan Jackson: 1
- Texas A&M DE Shemar Stewart: 1
- Georgia LB/DE Jalon Walker: 1
Of these 167 mocks, only five had the Colts trading up (to picks No. 6, 7, 9, 10 and 13) and just one had the Colts trading down (to No. 22).
For some of the names not mentioned as frequently here, it's worth noting only three mocks we collected after the first wave of free agency – in which the Colts signed safety Cam Bynum and cornerback Charvarius Ward – had the Colts taking a defensive back.
Mock drafts are often an exercise in asking questions – if this happens, then could this happen? On Thursday night, we'll finally get answers to those questions we've been asking for months.
