Fantasy Friday: Colts & AFC South Average Draft Position

INDIANAPOLIS --- Mock draft season is in full swing for all the fantasy football junkies out there, and it is no different for Colts fans preparing for their leagues.

The potential of Pep Hamilton's offense in Indianapolis in 2014 has plenty of fantasy football fans salivating to acquire shares of it. With training camp less than two weeks away, here's an update on the average draft position (ADP) of Colts and their AFC South rivals in 10 and 12-team leagues on NFL.com.

If a player is not listed, he is currently not being drafted in standard 10-team, 15-round drafts on NFL.com.

Keep in mind these are not preseason draft rankings predicting success. It is strictly where players are being taken in mock drafts. Combining ADP and your rankings is a great way to find value come draft day:

COLTS

• Trent Richardson: 10th round?!!! Sign me up. Even in the 8th round in 12-team leagues? That is insane value for a RB in a very good offense that could potentially be a three-down back.  Everybody agrees his 2.9 yards per carry last year were poor, but you're not investing a 1st round pick in him in fantasy drafts like you had to last season. Richardson did score at least 8 fantasy points in three of the final four games last season. Offseason reports have been positive too. However, if I own Richardson, I also want to own Ahmad Bradshaw. For a flex RB option who could easily be a feature back, this could be the steal of the fantasy season.

• Andrew Luck: I'm starting to believe Luck might not be on any of my fantasy teams this season. Do I think he's a stud? Yes. So why won't he be on my fantasy roster? Quarterback is deeper than it's ever been. Luck finished 5th among QBs with 288 points last year. Colin Kaepernick finished as the 11th ranked QB with 261 points. That's only a difference of 1.62 points per week. Instead of taking Luck in the 4th round, I'll probably wait until the 8th, 9th, or 10th round where Kaepernick, Russell Wilson, Jay Cutler, and Tony Romo are still available.      

• Hakeem Nicks/Reggie Wayne (Sleeper Alert): All signs point to Reggie Wayne being healthy, but if he is brought along slowly to begin the season coming off a torn ACL at age 35, then Hakeem Nicks could be an extremely good fantasy value at the end of your draft. Nicks is on a 1-year contract, after coming over from the Giants. He's motivated. Nicks had three 100 yard games last year, despite 27 Eli Manning interceptions, but zero touchdowns. Why do I believe Nicks won't go another year without a touchdown in Indianapolis? Andrew Luck is throwing the ball. For the record, I'm not betting against Reggie Wayne. That might be another monster steal if the 2012 Reggie Wayne returns, for a player not being drafted until at least the 9th round.

TEXANS

• Arian Foster: Raise your hand if you were sunk by a 1st-round RB bust last season. Half of the RBs taken in the 1st round last year torpedoed their teams' championship hopes. Foster has been medically cleared. His teammates say he's healthy, but forgive me if I go with a more reliable option at the end of the 1st round (top-3 WR or Jimmy Graham). Don't forget about a new head coach and new offense in Houston. For me, that's too many factors to invest a 1st round pick in Arian Foster in 2014. I'd rather have Montee Ball.

• Andre Johnson: Asked whether he'd be at training camp, Johnson responded, "Hopefully. We'll see what happens." Asked if he'd be playing for the Texans week 1, Johnson responded, “I don’t know.” Fantasy football buyers beware.

TITANS

• Bishop Sankey: At this point, every fantasy football manager knows Sankey is the rookie RB to target first, because he's the only rookie RB with a clear path to getting the most touches on his team. But when do you draft him? NFL.com ADP data shows Ryan Mathews, C.J. Spiller, Rashad Jennings, and Ben Tate all getting drafted before Sankey. I'll take Sankey ahead of any of those RBs, especially in a keeper league.

• Kendall Wright: I point out Wright, not so as an endorsement for him, but for what he accomplished last year. NFL fantasy editor Michael Fabiano pointed out an intriguing stat. Second-year wideouts are breaking out more often. Since 2000, only five rookie WRs posted 1,000-plus yards. That number skyrockets to 27 among second-year receivers. In 2013, those players included Josh Gordon, Alshon Jeffery, T.Y. Hilton, Michael Floyd, and Wright. Keep that in mind when looking for WR sleepers this year. Check out last year's rookie WRs (DeAndre Hopkins, if Andre Johnson fallout continues?).

JAGUARS

• Toby Gerhart: Remember those RBs I mentioned being taken ahead of Sankey? They're also being taken ahead of Gerhart. Chris Johnson and Frank Gore are also being taken before the former Vikings back-up RB. In this day and age of running back by committee, Gerhart has signed with a team that is talking about a featured back role. "Featured back" are the magic words…ESPECIALLY when they aren't being drafted until the 5th round or later. I'd have no problem making Gerhart/Sankey my RB2 in a 12-team league, after taking just one RB in the first four rounds.

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