There isn't much drama left in the AFC playoff race – but the Colts could absolutely create some with a win against the Denver Broncos on Sunday at Empower Field at Mile High.
With four games to play, the Kansas City Chiefs and Buffalo Bills have already clinched division titles. The Pittsburgh Steelers and Houston Texans both have two-game leads in the AFC North and AFC South; the Texans' advantage over the Colts is, effectively, three games based on Houston owning the head-to-head tiebreaker.
And all three wild card teams – the Broncos, Baltimore Ravens and Los Angeles Chargers – are 8-5, each with a two-game advantage over the 6-7 Colts and Miami Dolphins. The Cincinnati Bengals stayed alive in the AFC playoff race thanks to a wild win over the Dallas Cowboys on Monday Night Football, improving their record to 5-8.
Remarkably, six of the AFC's 16 teams were eliminated from playoff contention by the end of Week 14: The Cleveland Browns, Jacksonville Jaguars, New York Jets, Tennessee Titans, New England Patriots and Las Vegas Raiders (conversely, just one NFC team – the New York Giants – has been eliminated by this point). And Week 15 not only sees the Colts face the Broncos, but it also features a Dolphins-Texans game that could further dry the ink on the AFC playoff picture – or, again, open the door for the whole thing to be muddied.
Before you dive in here, the most important thing for this weekend is pretty simple: It's for the Colts to beat the Broncos.
AFC Standings (**denotes clinched division, *denotes division leader, +denotes wild card)
- Kansas City Chiefs (12-1)* *
- Buffalo Bills (10-3)* *
- Pittsburgh Steelers (10-3)*
- Houston Texans (8-5)*
- Baltimore Ravens (8-5)+
- Los Angeles Chargers (8-5)+
- Denver Broncos (8-5)+
- Indianapolis Colts (6-7)
- Miami Dolphins (6-7)
- Cincinnati Bengals (5-8)
Week 15 playoff odds
The Colts enter Week 15 with a 30 percent chance to reach the playoffs, per the New York Times. They have a 5 percent chance to win the AFC South and a 25 percent chance to earn a wild card spot, and we'll explore how some Week 15 results could increase or decrease those numbers in a bit.
First, from the New York Times, playoff odds for all 10 AFC teams still in contention:
- Kansas City Chiefs: 100 percent
- Buffalo Bills: 100 percent
- Pittsburgh Steelers: >99 percent
- Baltimore Ravens: 98 percent
- Houston Texans: 96 percent
- Los Angeles Chargers: 86 percent
- Denver Broncos: 72 percent
- Indianapolis Colts: 30 percent
- Miami Dolphins: 16 percent
- Cincinnati Bengals: 2 percent
Remaining schedules of note
Colts:
- @ Broncos (8-5)
- vs. Titans (3-10)
- @ Giants (2-11)
- vs. Jaguars (3-10)
Broncos:
- vs. Colts (6-7)
- @ Chargers (8-5) [Thursday Night Football]
- @ Bengals (5-8)
- vs. Chiefs (12-1)
Texans:
- vs. Dolphins (6-7)
- @ Chiefs (12-1) [Saturday, Dec. 21]
- vs. Ravens (8-5) [Christmas Day]
- @ Titans (3-10)
Chargers:
- vs. Buccaneers (7-6)
- vs. Broncos (8-5) [Thursday Night Football]
- @ Patriots (3-10)
- @ Raiders (2-11)
Ravens:
- at Giants (2-11)
- vs. Steelers (10-3) [Saturday, Dec. 21]
- @ Texans (8-5) [Christmas Day]
- vs. Browns (3-10)
Dolphins:
- @ Texans (8-5)
- vs. 49ers (6-7)
- @ Browns (3-10)
- @ Jets (3-10)
Bengals:
- @ Titans (3-10)
- vs. Browns (3-10)
- vs. Broncos (8-5)
- @ Steelers (10-3)
Week 15 scenarios
The best way to think about Week 15 is this: If the Colts beat the Broncos, their playoff odds jump from 30 percent to 66 percent. If the Colts lose to the Broncos, their odds drop from 30 percent to 9 percent. That gap of 57 percentage points is about as big as you'll see in the 14th game of a season, and it's why the Colts are approaching this week acknowledging the stakes of Sunday's game in Denver.
The Colts' easiest path to the playoffs – the one in which they will need the least help from other teams – is by beating Denver and then finishing one game better than the Broncos over the final three weeks of the season. For example: If the Colts beat the Broncos, and Denver goes 2-1 down the stretch, the Colts would need to go 3-0 to make the playoffs.
There still remains a path – albeit a narrow one – to winning the AFC South, too. The Colts have to be at least three games better than the Texans over the final four weeks of the season: If Houston goes 1-3, the Colts have to go 4-0; if Houston is 0-4, the Colts have to be 3-1 or 4-0 to win their division for the first time since 2014.
Again, that's a narrow path, which is why the New York Times actually drops the Colts' playoff odds if the wild card-chasing Dolphins beat the Texans on Sunday. A Colts win and Texans loss gives the Colts a 62 percent chance to make the playoffs; a Colts win and Texans win gives the Colts a 69 percent chance to make the playoffs.
However: A Colts win and Texans loss increases the Colts' AFC South odds to 24 percent. And given the Colts hold the head-to-head tiebreaker over the Dolphins, a few percentage points in overall playoff odds probably aren't worth the upside of widening the path to winning the AFC South.
A few other games will have playoff odds implications for the Colts, too: The Chargers host the Tampa Bay Buccaneers (7-6) while the Ravens travel to MetLife Stadium to face the New York Giants (2-11). Here's how those games could impact the Colts if they beat the Broncos:
- Ravens lose: Playoff odds increase 5 percent
- Chargers lose: Playoff odds increase 5 percent
If the Colts beat the Broncos and Denver wins their final three games, the Colts would then need to win out and have either the Ravens or Chargers go 2-2 or worse to finish the season (the Colts could also go 3-1 and have one of those teams go 1-3 or worse).
There is a path for the Colts to lose to the Broncos and still make the playoffs, but they'd need a lot of help, so we won't overload your brain with that right now (we'll just overload it with other stuff).
It is, however, worth noting the New York Times gives the Colts a 99 percent chance of making the playoffs if they win their final four games.
The Week 15 rooting guide
This, of course, starts with the Colts beating the Broncos. From there, the most ideal scenario would be:
- Ravens lose to Giants
- Texans lose to Dolphins
- Chargers lose to Buccaneers
In this scenario, the Colts have a 70 percent chance to make the playoffs with a 24 percent chance to win the AFC South.
Since the Colts would need to win out and still get help down the stretch in this scenario – the Broncos losing one more game or the Texans losing two more games – there are some other games that won't directly impact the Colts' playoff odds right now, but benefit them in the final weeks of the 2024 season:
Chiefs at Browns, Bills at Lions: Because the Broncos host the Chiefs in Week 18, it'd be better for the Colts' odds of Denver losing another game if Kansas City hadn't clinched the AFC No. 1 seed by the final game of the season. If the Chiefs have nothing to play for in Week 18, Andy Reid could opt to sit Patrick Mahomes, Travis Kelce, Chris Jones and his starters; if the Chiefs are playing for home field advantage and a first-round bye, those star players would have reason to play. The Chiefs have a two-game lead on the Buffalo Bills, though the Bills own the head-to-head tiebreaker, so as long as the Bills are a game behind the Chiefs heading into Week 18, the AFC No. 1 seed would be up for grabs in Denver. Having said that: A Chiefs loss, coupled with a Bills win, would put that Week 18 game on a path to mattering for Kansas City.
Bengals at Titans: Per ESPN's playoff machine, a 9-8 Colts team would hold the tiebreaker over a 9-8 Bengals team, so as long as the Colts go 3-1 down the stretch, there is no way they can be passed by the Bengals in the AFC standings. However, the break-glass-in-case-of-emergency scenario that still gets the Colts in the playoffs with a loss to the Broncos is a three (or more) way tie of 9-8 teams for the final playoff spot; while Denver would own the head-to-head tiebreaker over the Colts, introducing a third team to the mix would give the Colts the edge in three (or more) way tie based on common opponents and/or conference record. This goes, by the way, for every three-plus way tie, whether the Colts are 10-7 or 9-8. Anyways: The Bengals winning could help keep that trap door open; Cincinnati also hosts Denver in Week 17, and if the Bengals are still playing for something, that could benefit the Colts given Denver still would have to lose another game.
Steelers at Eagles: It's probably not realistic, but for the sake of being thorough, we'll mention it: If a playoff spot came down to a 10-7 Colts team and a 10-7 Steelers team, the Colts would own the tiebreaker based on their Week 4 win at Lucas Oil Stadium. This would require Pittsburgh to lose all of their final four games and the Ravens to win the AFC North, though. More helpful here, actually, is the Steelers winning and keeping the heat on the Chiefs for the AFC No. 1 seed: Pittsburgh faces Kansas City on Christmas Day and could disrupt the Chiefs' march to home field advantage and a first-round bye.
