AFC Playoff standings, odds, tiebreakers remaining schedules: Colts hold No. 7 seed entering Week 15

Despite losing, 34-14, to the Cincinnati Bengals on Sunday, the Colts still currently hold the AFC No. 7 seed – despite having the same record as the Bengals, who will enter Week 15 10th in the conference standings.

The short answer for how that's the case: The Colts and Bengals are both among six – six! – AFC teams with a 7-6 record, and hold a key tiebreaker over several of those teams. We'll get into exactly what that tiebreaker is after running through this week's results in the AFC playoff race.

Key Week 14 results:

• Browns 31, Jaguars 27: No. 5 Browns improve to 8-5; No. 4 Jaguars fall to 8-5
• Patriots 21, Steelers 18: No. 6 Steelers fall to 7-6
• Bengals 34, Colts 14: No. 7 Colts fall to 7-6, No. 10 Bengals improve to 7-6
• Jets 30, Texans 6: No. 8 Texans fall to 7-6
• Broncos 24, Chargers 7: No. 9 Broncos improve to 7-6
• Bills 20, Chiefs 17: No. 11 Bills improve to 7-6

AFC Standings (*denotes division leader, Dolphins & Titans play on Monday Night Football)

1. Baltimore Ravens (10-3)*
2. Miami Dolphins (9-3)*
3. Kansas City Chiefs (8-5)*
4. Jacksonville Jaguars (8-5)*
5. Cleveland Browns (8-5)
6. Pittsburgh Steelers (7-6)
7. Indianapolis Colts (7-6)
8. Houston Texans (7-6)
9. Denver Broncos (7-6)
10. Cincinnati Bengals (7-6)
11. Buffalo Bills (7-6)
12. Los Angeles Chargers (5-8)
13. Las Vegas Raiders (5-8)
14. New York Jets (5-8)
15. Tennessee Titans (4-8)
16. New England Patriots (3-10)

Current Tiebreakers

While the Colts do not own the head-to-head tiebreaker over the Bengals, because there are six 7-6 teams, the only way head-to-head tiebreakers would be applied is if the Colts played and swept (or were swept by) every other team with the same record.

So that moves the next tiebreaker to conference record. The Steelers and Colts both have the top record (5-4) against AFC opposition, so they slot into the last two playoff spots, with the Steelers holding the No. 6 seed based on being 5-4 against common opponents with the Colts, who are 5-5 against those teams. Common opponents are the next tiebreaker, but you don't need to worry about it yet, since the Colts play the Steelers this weekend and if head-to-head doesn't apply, conference record would – and the winner of that game will have a better conference record. 

Got all that? Here's the too long, didn't read version, with the AFC record of each 7-6 team:

1. Steelers (5-4)
2. Colts (5-4)
3. Texans (4-4)
4. Broncos (4-5)
5. Bengals (3-6)
6. Bills (4-5)

If the Browns were to be dragged into a non head-to-head tiebreaker, they currently have a 6-3 record against AFC opponents. 

The Broncos hold the tiebreaker over the Bengals and Bills because they beat both those teams, while the Bengals beat the Bills. So tiebreakers can revert to head-to-head in certain, headache-inducing situations – something maybe we'll worry about if we need to in Week 18. 

For now, though, the Colts still control their playoff destiny: Win out and they're in.

Remaining Schedules (key head-to-head games in bold)

Colts (7-6):

• Week 15: vs. Steelers (7-6)
• Week 16: at Falcons (6-7)
• Week 17: vs. Raiders (5-8)
• Week 18: vs. Texans (7-6)

Browns (8-5):

• Week 15: vs. Bears (5-8)
• Week 16: at Texans (7-6)
• Week 17: vs. Jets (5-8)
• Week 18: at Bengals (7-6)

Steelers (7-6):

• Week 14: vs. Patriots (2-9)
• Week 15: at Colts (6-5)
• Week 16: vs. Bengals (7-6)
• Week 17: at Seahawks (6-5)
• Week 18: at Ravens (9-3)

Texans (7-6):

• Week 14: at Jets (5-8)
• Week 15: at Titans (4-8)
• Week 16: vs. Browns (8-5)
• Week 17: vs. Titans (4-8)
• Week 18: at Colts (7-6)

Broncos (7-6):

• Week 15: at Lions (9-4)
• Week 16: vs. Patriots (3-10)
• Week 17: vs. Chargers (5-8)
• Week 18: at Raiders (5-8)

Bills (7-6):

• Week 15: vs. Cowboys (9-3)
• Week 16: at Chargers (5-8)
• Week 17: vs. Patriots (3-10)
• Week 18: at Dolphins (9-3)

Playoff odds

The playoff odds for each wild card contender (right now, any team with at least seven wins) via the New York Times' Upshot playoff predictor:

1. Browns (85%, up from 60% last week)
2. Broncos (50%, up from 21% last week)
3. Colts (42% down from 67% last week)
4. Bills (42%, up from 15% last week)
5. Texans (41%, down from 78% last week)
6. Bengals (25%, up from <10% last week)
7. Steelers (25%, down from 54% last week)

A Colts win over the Steelers would bump their playoff odds up to 59 percent, while a loss would drop them to 20 percent.

Without taking other results into account, the Colts' playoff odds based on winning at least three of their final four games:

• Beat Pittsburgh, Atlanta, Las Vegas & Houston (11-6): >99%
• Beat Pittsburgh, lose to Atlanta, beat Las Vegas & Houston (10-7): 96%
• Beat Pittsburgh & Atlanta, lose to Las Vegas, beat Houston (10-7): 88%
• Lose to Pittsburgh, beat Atlanta, Las Vegas & Houston (10-7): 87%
• Beat Pittsburgh, Atlanta, Las Vegas, lose to Houston (10-7): 71%