There's a lot that's out of the Colts' control in the dying embers of 2024.
The only way the Colts make the playoffs is with a ton of help. There are two paths, both of which have yet to enter "likely" territory and are remote-at-best possibilities. There is no room for error, too: The Colts will be eliminated from the playoffs with one more loss this season.
The first path is to have the Los Angeles Chargers lose their final two games on the road against the New England Patriots (3-12) and Las Vegas Raiders (3-12). The other way requires a three-way tie of 9-8 teams between the Colts, Denver Broncos (9-6) and the Cincinnati Bengals (7-8) and/or Miami Dolphins (7-8). For that to happen, the Broncos have to lose their final two games (at Cincinnati, vs. Kansas City) and the Bengals (vs. Denver, at Pittsburgh) or Dolphins (at Cleveland, at New York Jets) have to win out.
We can get into the odds any of that stuff happens later. For now, what matters the most is, on Sunday, the Colts controlled what they needed to control: A 38-30 victory over the Tennessee Titans at Lucas Oil Stadium.
"We're trying to fight to get in the playoffs, and we have to win out," defensive tackle DeForest Buckner said. "And we did it today."
The Colts leaned into a commanding rushing attack on Sunday, with Jonathan Taylor (218 yards), Anthony Richardson (70 yards), Trey Sermon (25 yards) and Tyler Goodson (22 yards) combining to set a new franchise record with 335 yards on the ground. Richardson attempted just 11 passes as the Colts won at the line of scrimmage and Taylor punished Tennessee's run defense mistakes, turning those into 65- and 70-yard touchdowns.
Taylor joined the Philadelphia Eagles' Saquon Barkley as the only other player to have multiple rushing touchdowns of 65 or more yards in a single game this season.
"I think we probably ran out of run plays because we ran it so many times," tight end Mo Alie-Cox said. "But it was definitely cool to take the pressure off Ant, just let JT do what JT does. And today — all week we talked about just worrying about us and worrying about what we can do to control our own destiny and things like that. We came out hot, scored the first play of the second half, so yeah, definitely felt great to do that."
Taylor's third touchdown of the game ballooned the Colts' lead to 38-7 midway through the third quarter; after that, the Titans clawed back into the game with 23 unanswered points. Taylor exited the game in the third quarter – "We were up pretty good," Steichen said on why he turned to Sermon and Goodson – but the Titans' late-game run ultimately forced Taylor back into the game. Richardson helped put the game on ice with a critical third-and-eight completion to wide receiver Michael Pittman Jr. just after the two-minute warning.
This is another thing the Colts can control – not just winning, but winning in dominant fashion. The Colts' eight-point win was their largest margin of victory this season, but like the previous six wins, it was still a one-score triumph. And watching that lead be trimmed from 31 points elicited at least a little frustration from the postgame locker room.
"You got those mixed feelings, but it's hard to win in this league," Buckner said. "You have to enjoy the win. But we got the 24-hour rule — we gotta move on and look at the things that we need to clean up. We have to develop that killer instinct, especially defensively. We play so well throughout the majority of the game, and late into the game we're giving up too much — too many missed tackles."
The Titans gained just 157 yards on their first nine possessions and averaged 4.6 yards per play; on their next three possessions – on which they scored three touchdowns in the game's final 20 minutes – Tennessee gained 165 yards and averaged 7.5 yards per play. Meanwhile, the Colts went from averaging north of 10 yards per play on their first nine drives to three yards per play after going up by 31 points.
"Our defense was rolling pretty good there," head coach Shane Steichen said. "Then obviously, we were running it pretty good and then they started to get back in it and we don't want that to happen. So, we had to adjust there at the end."
Still, when wins are at a premium around Christmas and New Year's, the Colts will absolutely take Sunday's triumph no matter how it looked. Internally, the Colts' focus will now shift exclusively to the 2-13 New York Giants and their second trip to MetLife Stadium this season this coming weekend; externally, we'll have some legitimate scoreboard watching to do before the Colts kick off in New Jersey.
Saturday features two massive games for the Colts' playoff hopes – or, at the least, putting some real heat on the Broncos and/or Chargers. It starts at 1 p.m. on Dec. 28 with the Chargers' trip to Gillette Stadium to face the Patriots; right after that, the Broncos' road game at Cincinnati will matter quite a bit.
If either the Chargers or Broncos lose on Saturday and the Colts win on Sunday, the Colts will not control their playoff destiny. But they will make Week 18 matter, which at this point is all the Colts can ask for.
As long as they win.
"We've got to handle our business," Steichen said. "We know that we need some help going forward, but we've got to control what we control, and that's getting ready for the New York Giants."
