INDIANAPOLIS – As much as the Colts don't want to admit it, they have to scoreboard watch the next two weeks.
In order for the Colts (6-8) to win the AFC South, they need some significant help from the Houston Texans (7-7).
Before we get into the tiebreaking scenarios (and there are potentially plenty), here are the remaining schedules for the Texans and Colts.
Texans (7-7):at Tennessee (3-11), vs. Jacksonville (5-9)Colts (6-8):at Miami (5-9), vs. Tennessee (3-11)
The Jaguars (5-9) are also still alive, but they must win out (at Saints, at Texans), have Houston lose out and the Colts lose to Tennessee.
So, without further ado, here are the ways the AFC South can be decided in the Colts favor the next two weeks:
How the Colts can win the AFC South
- If the Colts win out and the Texans lose out, the Colts will finish at 8-8 and Houston at 7-9. The Colts would win the AFC South.
- If the Texans lose out, the Colts could get in with just a win over the Titans in Week 17. Both teams would finish 7-9 and the Colts would win the tiebreaker based off a better divisional record (4-2, 3-3).
- The Colts would also win the AFC South at 7-9, if the Texans and Jaguars joined them there. Houston would have to lose out and the Jaguars would have to win out. Under this hypothetical, the Colts would win the tiebreaker thanks to the better divisional record (4-2, compared to 3-3 for the Jaguars and Texans).
Tiebreakers still to be determined
- If the Texans lose out, and the Colts beat just Miami in Week 16, things get complicated. The tiebreaker scenarios (see below) would lead to best win/loss record in common games. They would both be 5-7. The next tiebreaker is conference record, which both teams would also split with 5-7 marks. So the division would be decided by strength of victory. Houston currently has a slim lead in this tiebreaker, so Colts fans need to root for the Broncos, Dolphins and Falcons (and against the Bengals, Jets and Saints).
- If the Texans split their final two games (8-8) and the Colts win out (8-8), you would have the same scenario as above.
Houston clinches the AFC South this week if one of these things happen:
1) HOU win and HOU clinches strength of victory tiebreaker over IND
2) HOU win and IND loss or tie
3) HOU tie and IND loss
To sum up things, Colts fans should cheer for their own team and against the Texans, if they wish to see their team in the postseason.
Also, fans wanting to plug and play with playoff scenarios, this ESPN playoff machine is awesome.[
NFL TIEBREAKING SCENARIOS](http://www.nfl.com/standings/tiebreakingprocedures) (from the NFL)
TO BREAK A TIE WITHIN A DIVISION
If, at the end of the regular season, two or more clubs in the same division finish with identical won-lost-tied percentages, the following steps will be taken until a champion is determined.
Two Clubs
1 Head-to-head (best won-lost-tied percentage in games between the clubs).
2 Best won-lost-tied percentage in games played within the division.
3 Best won-lost-tied percentage in common games.
4 Best won-lost-tied percentage in games played within the conference.
5 Strength of victory.
6 Strength of schedule.
7 Best combined ranking among conference teams in points scored and points allowed.
8 Best combined ranking among all teams in points scored and points allowed.
9 Best net points in common games.
10 Best net points in all games.
11 Best net touchdowns in all games.
12 Coin toss
Three or More Clubs
(Note: If two clubs remain tied after third or other clubs are eliminated during any step, tie breaker reverts to step 1 of the two-club format).
1 Head-to-head (best won-lost-tied percentage in games among the clubs).
2 Best won-lost-tied percentage in games played within the division.
3 Best won-lost-tied percentage in common games.
4 Best won-lost-tied percentage in games played within the conference.
5 Strength of victory.
6 Strength of schedule.
7 Best combined ranking among conference teams in points scored and points allowed.
8 Best combined ranking among all teams in points scored and points allowed.
9 Best net points in common games.
10 Best net points in all games.
11 Best net touchdowns in all games.
12 Coin toss
