1. The Colts planned to run the ball. The Jets planned to stop it. But that set the stage for Anthony Richardson's late-game heroics.
Over the Colts' first five possessions – spanning effectively the entire first half – head coach Shane Steichen called 21 running plays against 10 dropbacks for quarterback Anthony Richardson, and the Colts jumped out to a 13-0 lead. But outside of a 10-yard run on the Colts' opening possession, there wasn't much there for running back Jonathan Taylor – the Jets clearly had a plan to mute Taylor's impact.
Taylor gained 40 yards on 14 carries on those first five possessions; he managed 17 yards on 10 rushing attempts over the rest of the game.
The point being: The Jets were not going to let Taylor beat them on Sunday. Taylor gained 54 yards on 24 attempts in total, and his average of 2.4 yards per carry was the second-lowest (minimum 20 attempts) of his career. Ten of Taylor's 24 rushes gained one yard or less, while three in every four rushes went for under four yards.
That meant Richardson was going to have to win the game for the Colts.
And he did.
On two fourth-quarter possessions, with the Colts first trailing by eight and then by five, Richardson put up some remarkable numbers given the Jets' defensive success in the fourth quarter this season:
| Stat (4th quarter) | Jets defense, Weeks 1-10 (NFL rank) | Jets defense vs. Colts |
|---|---|---|
| Touchdowns allowed | 3 (T-1) | 2 |
| Yards/play | 4.2 (3rd) | 10.0 |
| Explosive (15+ yards) pass rate | 9.8% (9th) | 40% |
| Sacks | 12 (2nd) | 0 |
| Passer rating allowed | 66.7 (8th) | 152.1 |
Richardson completed eight of 10 passes for 129 yards in the fourth quarter with a passing touchdown and rushing touchdown; six of his completions generated a first down or touchdown. And those first down completions mostly came with nine or 10 yards to the sticks:
- Second and 10
- Third and 2
- First and 10
- Second and 9
- Second and 6
- First and 10
"Obviously you want to do what you think is best to win the football game, but if something's not going the way you thought, you gotta be able to adjust," Steichen said. "And I thought our guys adjusted well, offensive line and the receivers and Anthony throwing the ball there to go do what we needed to do to win that football game was huge."
2. Anthony Richardson threw over the middle of the field with poise, confidence, rhythm and touch.
Some of Richardson's most impressive plays of Week 11 came when he ripped intermediate throws over the middle of the field – an area of his game in which he struggled prior to Sunday. Richardson completed five of six passes for 87 yards on intermediate (10-20 yards beyond the line of scrimmage) over the middle (between the numbers) against the Jets, per Pro Football Focus, with several of those throws being key plays in the Colts' 28-27 win.
| Intermediate, over-the-middle throws | Anthony Richardson, Weeks 1-10 | Anthony Richardson, Week 11 | NFL average |
|---|---|---|---|
| Completion % | 36.8% | 83.3% | 61.3% |
| Yards/attempt | 8.7 | 14.5 | 11.4 |
| Passer rating | 64.8 | 118.8 | 98.8 |
These throws generally require a quarterback to be in rhythm and stand tall in the pocket while either fitting balls into tight windows and/or layering them between linebackers and defensive backs. On Richardson's first of these attempts, he didn't bail from a pocket that was being collapsed by Jets defensive lineman Eric Watts and layered a throw between linebacker Jamien Sherwood and safety Jalen Mills, connecting with wide receiver Michael Pittman Jr. for a 16-yard gain. That played helped spark the Colts' first touchdown drive of the game.
Another one of these throws converted a third-and-13 to Downs early in the third quarter, with that possession ending with a 56-yard Matt Gay field goal. The only incompletion Richardson threw when targeting this area of the field came when he rolled to his right, was quickly pressured, bought time back to his left and threw in the vicinity of Pittman to an otherwise vacant part of the field in the third quarter.
And then Richardson completed three middle intermediate throws in the fourth quarter: First, a 20-yard completion on which he led Sherwood toward wide receiver Josh Downs with his eyes before throwing to Pittman.
"The one he hit to Pitt was huge over the middle to get that drive going there, it was awesome," Steichen said. "He used his eyes a little bit with the linebacker to get him pushing right and then was able to bang it into that little window there, which was huge."
The second was an accurate, on-time pass to Pierce on an over route – which set up Downs' 10-yard touchdown a few plays later.
"When you're running crossers versus man to man, you gotta throw those things firm," Steichen said. "He did a great job doing that."
And finally, a seam ball to Downs from the Jets' 27-yard line thrown with confidence – Downs hadn't yet turned for the ball when Richardson released it – which teed up Richardson's game-winning touchdown run with 46 seconds left.
"They were in Cover 2, and he put a really good ball on me," Downs said. "It was out before I even looked."
3. Richardson's ability to avoid sacks showed up in a big way.
Against the Jets on Sunday, Richardson was sacked twice, and those certainly were negative plays: The first came on a third-and-six at the Jets' 13-yard line; the other was a strip-sack, with the Jets recovering the fumble and punching in a touchdown a few plays later.
But the Jets entered Week 11 with 30 sacks (third-most in NFL) and a 40 percent pressure rate (second-highest). And New York's collective ability to not just get after opposing quarterbacks, but bring them to the ground, has been a key driver in their defensive success this season.
On average, quarterbacks lose 7.5 yards when they've been sacked this season; when the Jets get a sack, their opponents have lost an average of 9.5 yards per play, the third-highest rate in the NFL.
That's the starting point for why Richardson's ability to avoid sacks matters so much. Another one: Offenses are averaging 3.9 yards per play when pressured this season; Richardson averaged 7.3 yards per play on the 15 dropbacks on which he was pressured, per Pro Football Focus, which includes the two times he was sacked.
Digging a little deeper, these numbers are indicative of why it's so important to avoid a sack – even if it means throwing the ball away for an incompletion.
| Stat | Play after sack | Play after incompletion | All plays |
|---|---|---|---|
| Success rate | 16.5% | 33.6% | 35.2% |
| EPA/play | -.254 | -.020 | -.018 |
| Passer rating | 78.6 | 90.6 | 92.1 |
Two plays from Sunday, on which Richardson easily could've been sacked, stand out here.
First, on a third-and-nine early in the third quarter, Richardson was hit by defensive end Michael Clemons as Downs was setting up his route. As Clemons wrapped his arms around the 6-foot-4, 244 pound quarterback, Richardson managed to flick a floating pass to Downs, who caught it and scampered for a first down.
"I'm running my route hearing the crowd cheering, but then I look up and I'm like, well, the ball is out to me," Downs said. "But it was kind of floating weird, so I was like, I knew he was kind of under duress, but he got it out to me so it was a good enough ball."
Instead of taking a drive-ending sack, the Colts got a first down; a few plays later, Gay connected on his 56-yard field goal to put the Colts up 16-14.
Then, with the Colts trailing 24-16 early in the fourth quarter, Richardson was quickly pressured by slot cornerback Isaiah Oliver on the first play of a critical possession. Richardson found himself one-on-one with Oliver, and initially tried to juke the cornerback to create some space. Oliver got both hands on Richardson at about the 17-yard line just inside the far hashmark; Richardson used his left arm to hold off Oliver while working to get outside the pocket. With Oliver trying to bring him down, Richardson extended the play about halfway between the near-side hashmark and numbers, then threw the ball out of bounds.
"He had a few, the guy was hanging on him and he got away, he's hanging onto the ball, it's like 'Throw it! Throw it' and he got it off, which was phenomenal," Steichen said. "It just goes to show you the strength that he has."
Again: Instead of taking a sack that would've immediately put the Colts on their heels to begin a critical possession, Richardson kept the playbook open for Steichen on second-and-10. He connected for a 20-yard gain to Pittman on the next play, and the Colts wound up converting the possession into a touchdown.
"There's a lot more open on second and 10," Steichen said with a smile. "If you guys got some second and 25 calls, let me know. Anybody out there, we'll try to put them in."
4. Time of possession & a few other notes on offense.
- The Colts held the ball for a season-high 34 minutes and 17 seconds, and possessed the ball for longer than their opponent for the second time this season (Week 5 vs. Jacksonville was the other game, at 31:32).
- All five of Downs' catches resulted in a first down or touchdown; 30 of his team-leading 50 receptions have gone for a first down or touchdown. A year ago, Downs had 30 first downs/touchdowns on 67 receptions.
- Pierce caught three passes for 74 yards (24.7 yards/reception), upping his season average to an NFL-high 22.7 yards per reception. Pierce and Detroit Lions wide receiver Jameson Williams – who the Colts will face this coming weekend at Lucas Oil Stadium – are neck-and-neck for the NFL lead in yards per reception, with Williams narrowly in second at 22.4 yards per reception.
- Rookie left tackle Matt Goncalves allowed one pressure on 32 pass blocking snaps, per Pro Football Focus, earning him an 80.9 PFF pass block grade.
5. Three players made keys plays on defense.
- Defensive end Kwity Paye had a team-high five pressures and two sacks, both of which came on the Jets' last-ditch final drive. Paye's pressure on Rodgers with 46 seconds left forced a fumble that lost 13 yards; then, with 13 seconds remaining, Paye stayed disciplined with his rush and didn't let Rodgers escape the pocket to his right, bringing down the quarterback to end the game.
- Defensive end Laiatu Latu had a team-high pass rush win rate of 25 percent, per Pro Football Focus, and he had a drive-ending sack on a third-and-2 dropback in the first quarter. He also quickly identified a swing pass to running back Breece Hall and blew it up for a loss of five yards in the fourth quarter.
- Cornerback Jaylon Jones was targeted eight times and allowed just four receptions for 36 yards with two pass break-ups. Wide receiver Garrett Wilson, who's third in the NFL with 69 catches and fifth with 722 yards, had just two catches for seven yards when matched up with Jones on Sunday.
