The Colts' 38-30 win over the Tennessee Titans on Sunday kept them alive in the AFC playoff picture, though they remain in a precarious position and need plenty of help to reach the postseason for the first time since 2020.

Entering Week 17, the Colts currently hold the No. 8 seed in the AFC and are two games behind the Denver Broncos for the conference's final wild card spot (*clinched division, +clinched playoff spot):

1. Kansas City Chiefs (14-1)*
2. Buffalo Bills (12-3)*
3. Pittsburgh Steelers (10-5)+
4. Houston Texans (9-6)*
5. Baltimore Ravens (10-5)+
6. Los Angeles Chargers (9-6)
7. Denver Broncos (9-6)
8. Indianapolis Colts (7-8)
9. Miami Dolphins (7-8)
10. Cincinnati Bengals (7-8)

The only two teams the Colts can catch in the standings are the Chargers and Broncos. The Houston Texans clinched the AFC South in Week 15 by virtue of their win over the Dolphins and the Colts' loss to the Broncos.

Current playoff odds

The Week 16 combination of the Colts' win, the Broncos' loss and wins by the Dolphins and Bengals in put the Colts' playoff odds at 18 percent entering Week 17, per the New York Times.

What has to happen

The Colts will make the playoffs as a wild card if they win their remaining games against the New York Giants (2-13) and Jacksonville Jaguars (3-12) and one of two scenarios happen:

Scenario 1: The Los Angeles Chargers lose their remaining games on the road against the New England Patriots (3-12) and Las Vegas Raiders (3-12). This would tie the Colts and Chargers with 9-8 records; without a head-to-head tiebreaker, the Colts would advance based on having a better AFC record (the Chargers would be 6-6 and the Colts 7-5 against AFC opposition). If the Colts, Broncos and Chargers all were to finish with 9-8 records, the Colts would be the highest-seeded team among the three and make the playoffs based on AFC record.

Scenario 2: The Denver Broncos lose their remaining games at the Cincinnati Bengals (7-8) and vs. the Kansas City Chiefs (14-1) AND the Bengals and/or Miami Dolphins win their remaining games. Cincinnati finishes the season against Denver and at the Pittsburgh Steelers (10-5), while the Dolphins host the Cleveland Browns (3-12) and New York Jets (4-11) to end 2024.

In the second scenario, the Colts, Broncos and a third (or even fourth) team all have a 9-8 record. Because not all three or four teams will have played each other this season, the tiebreaker goes to conference record.

If the tiebreaker is between the Colts, Broncos and Bengals in this 9-8 scenario, the Colts would win it based on having a 7-5 conference record, better than the Broncos (who would be 5-7) and Bengals (who would be 6-6). If the tiebreaker involves the Dolphins, who would also be 7-5 in AFC play, the Broncos (and possibly Bengals) would be eliminated on conference record, and then it would revert to a head-to-head tiebreaker between the Colts and Dolphins, which the Colts own based on their 16-10 win over Miami in Week 7.

Week 17 rooting guide

The Colts have a real chance to put some heat on the Broncos and/or Chargers – or be eliminated from the playoffs – by the time they kick off against the Giants at 1 p.m. ET on Sunday. That's because there are two critical games on Saturday involving the Chargers and Broncos:

Chargers at Patriots, 1 p.m.: A Chargers win clinches a wild card berth for Los Angeles; a Chargers loss increases the Colts' playoff odds to 35 percent with a win over the Giants.

Broncos at Bengals, 4:30 p.m.: Denver clinches a playoff berth with a win; a Broncos loss and Colts win increases the Colts' playoff odds to 36 percent.

If both the Chargers and Broncos win on Saturday, the Colts will be eliminated from the playoffs. If both the Chargers and Broncos lose on Saturday and the Colts win Sunday, the Colts will enter Week 18 with a 38 percent chance to make the playoffs.

Other games that matter:

Browns at Dolphins, 4:05 p.m. on Sunday: If you're building the perfect weekend, it starts with the Colts winning, the Chargers and Broncos losing and the Dolphins winning. The New York Times gives the Colts a 45 percent chance to make the playoffs in this scenario; it would still require the Chargers or Broncos to lose in Week 18, but a Miami win would give the Colts another avenue to a three-way tiebreaker with Denver if it were to come down to that.

Chiefs at Steelers, 1 p.m. on Christmas day; Jets at Bills, 1 p.m. on Sunday: A Chiefs loss and a Bills win means the AFC No. 1 seed will not be locked up by Week 18, which would lead Kansas City to play Patrick Mahomes and their starters in Week 18 against the Broncos in Denver. If the Chiefs have the No. 1 seed locked up by Week 18, the expectation here is Andy Reid would not play the majority of his starters, which would theoretically increase Denver's odds of winning in Week 18.

On the horizon

None of this matters if the Chargers and Broncos win on Saturday or the Colts lose on Sunday. But if enough breaks the Colts' way this weekend, it could set up a situation where a season-ending Colts win over the Jaguars puts pressure on the Broncos or Chargers – and leads to some incredible scoreboard-watching on the first weekend of 2025.

The kickoff date and time for the Colts' season finale against the Jacksonville Jaguars will be announced at the conclusion of Week 17's games.