Two things are true for the Colts as they enter their Week 14 bye: They do not control their own destiny in the AFC playoff race, but if they win their final four games, they'll have a good chance of making the postseason either as a wild card or division winner.
Let's start with a look at the AFC playoff standings after Week 13 ended with the Denver Broncos beating the Cleveland Browns, 41-32, on Monday Night Football (*denotes division leader, +denotes wild card seed):
- Kansas City Chiefs (11-1)*
- Buffalo Bills (10-2)*
- Pittsburgh Steelers (9-3)*
- Houston Texans (8-5)*
- Los Angeles Chargers (8-4)+
- Baltimore Ravens (8-5)+
- Denver Broncos (8-5)+
- Indianapolis Colts (6-7)
- Miami Dolphins (5-7)
- Cincinnati Bengals (4-8)
- Cleveland Browns (3-9)
- New York Jets (3-9)
- Tennessee Titans (3-9)
- New England Patriots (3-10)
- Jacksonville Jaguars (2-10)
- Las Vegas Raiders (2-10)
Playoff odds
The Athletic pegs the Colts as having a 25 percent chance to make the playoffs, ahead of the ninth-seeded Dolphins (11 percent) and 10th-seeded Bengals (2 percent). The teams the Colts are chasing all have high odds of reaching the postseason: The Texans are at 97 percent, the Ravens at 96 percent, the Chargers at 93 percent and the Broncos at 77 percent.
Don't be daunted by those odds, though. The paths for the Colts to make the playoffs for the first time since 2020 are not all that difficult to envision:
The cleanest route: Beat Denver in Week 15, then be one game better than the Broncos in the final three weeks of the season
The Colts sit two games behind the Broncos, but their Week 15 matchup at Empower Field at Mile High will be as close to a win-or-go-home game as you'll get in mid-December. A loss would mean the Broncos would have the head-to-head tiebreaker and a three-game advantage over the Colts with three games to play; all Denver would have to do after is win one game to clinch a better record than the Colts.
But the Colts wouldn't be eliminated from the wild card just yet, even with a loss: If the Colts are part of a three-way (or more than three-way) tie of 9-8 teams for a wild card spot, they would have the advantage based on having the best AFC record among that group (which would include the Broncos, Chargers, Ravens, Dolphins and/or Bengals), which would be the tiebreaker in that scenario.
Let's look at what happens if the Colts beat the Broncos in Week 15, though. The Colts would improve to 7-7 and the Broncos would slip to 8-6 – meaning Denver would still control its own destiny, but with a difficult final three games looming:
| Week | Opponent | Record |
|---|---|---|
| 16 | @ Los Angeles Chargers | 8-4 |
| 17 | @ Cincinnati Bengals | 4-8 |
| 18 | vs. Kansas City Chiefs | 11-1 |
Compare that to the Colts' final three games:
| Week | Opponent | Record |
|---|---|---|
| 16 | vs. Tennessee Titans | 3-9 |
| 17 | @ New York Giants | 2-10 |
| 18 | vs. Jacksonville Jaguars | 2-10 |
Division games are tricky, and the Colts already lost to the Jaguars this season – so, certainly, nothing is taken for granted here.
But if the Colts beat the Broncos, and Denver loses one of its last three games, the Colts would be in the playoffs if they win out. If Denver were to lose two of its last three games, the Colts would need to go 2-1; again, in the event of a three-way tie of 9-8 teams, the Colts will make the playoffs in every possible scenario, at least using the ESPN Playoff Machine.
There is, of course, the possibility the Colts win out and miss the playoffs: If the Colts finish 10-7, the Broncos, Chargers and Ravens could all still finish 11-6 or better. However, if any of those teams – and the Dolphins – were to finish with a 10-7 record, the Colts would own head-to-head tiebreakers over the Dolphins and Broncos and conference record tiebreakers over the and Chargers. If the Colts win out, they would have an 8-4 record against AFC opposition; a 10-win Chargers team would be 7-5 against the AFC, while Baltimore would either be 7-5 or 6-6 if they were to win 10 games.
Got all that? The more easily-digestible point here: If the Colts win out, there's a high – but not certain – chance they'll make the playoffs.
Don't sleep on this path, too: As AFC South champions
When the Colts lost in Week 8 to the Houston Texans, it might've seemed like their shot at winning the AFC South had evaporated. And while the odds the Colts win their division for the first time in a decade may be slim, they're not zero.
The Texans, at 8-5, have an effective three-game lead over the 6-7 Colts by virtue of winning both games of the season series. Meaning: The Colts would win the AFC South if they go 4-0 and the Texans go 1-3 down the stretch; the Colts would also be division champions if they go 3-1 and the Texans go 0-4. The flip side is all the Texans have to do is win two of their final four games to clinch the division regardless of what the Colts do.
Certainly, a lot would need to break the Colts' way to win the AFC South. But the Texans, who've lost three of their last five games, do not have an easy remaining schedule after their Week 14 bye (with dates included for a reason in here):
| Week | Date | Opponent | Record |
|---|---|---|---|
| 15 | Dec. 15 | vs. Miami Dolphins | 5-7 |
| 16 | Dec. 21 | @ Kansas City Chiefs | 11-1 |
| 17 | Dec. 25 | vs. Baltimore Ravens | 8-5 |
| 18 | Jan. 4 or Jan. 5 | @ Tennessee Titans | 3-9 |
Arguably, Houston's toughest two-game stretch of the season will come in a four-day span at Kansas City and then home against Baltimore on Christmas day. The Texans, too, might be without linebacker Azeez Al-Shaair for one of both of those games after he was handed a three-game suspension by the NFL on Tuesday (Al-Shaair is appealing) for his hit on Jaguars quarterback Trevor Lawrence and the melees that followed.
Also, Hall of Fame football scribe John McClain recently noted on HoustonTexans.com how the Jaguars' collapse in 2023 – from 8-3 to out of the playoffs – concluded in Week 18 on the road against the Titans, who at that point were on a three-game losing streak but won, 28-20, to knock Jacksonville out of the playoffs.
The reality check here is The Athletic's odds give the Texans a 96 percent chance to win the AFC South. The Colts' most likely path to the playoffs still is through beating Denver, then having the Broncos lose one more time down the stretch. But the cement is not dry on the AFC South just yet.
Week 14 viewing guide
Since the Broncos, Texans and Ravens are on a bye, there's not a ton to root for from an Indianapolis viewpoint in our first weekend without Colts football since Labor Day. But there are some games that could have ripple effects on the AFC playoff race to keep an eye on:
Jets (3-9) at Dolphins (5-7), 1 p.m.: A Miami win here keeps Mike McDaniel's team very much alive in the AFC playoff race, setting up a massive game for the Dolphins – and Texans – in Week 15. The Colts, of course, own the head-to-head tiebreaker over the Dolphins by virtue of their Week 7 win, and if the Colts win their remaining games, Miami cannot finish with a better record.
Browns (3-9) at Steelers (9-3), 1 p.m.: In the unlikely event the Steelers get dragged into a wild card race, the Colts' Week 4 win would earn them the head-to-head tiebreaker over Pittsburgh. The Steelers have a tough remaining schedule after hosting the Browns: at Philadelphia, at Baltimore, vs. Kansas City and vs. Cincinnati.
Bills (10-2) at Rams (6-6), 4:25 p.m.: Since the Colts need to beat the Broncos and still have them lose another game, it wouldn't hurt for Denver's season finale against the Chiefs to matter for their opponent. How do the Bills play into this? Since Buffalo owns the head-to-head tiebreaker over Kansas City, if the Bills are one game behind or tied with the Chiefs going into Week 18, Patrick Mahomes & Co. would be playing for home field advantage and a first-round bye against the Broncos. However, if Kansas City is two games up on Buffalo heading into Week 18, that game against the Broncos wouldn't matter and we may not see many, if any, of the Chiefs' starters.
Chargers (8-4) at Chiefs (11-1), 8:20 p.m.: Jim Harbaugh's Chargers have won five of their last six games but won't have anything come easy to them in the next three weeks, starting with their Sunday night matchup with the Chiefs. After that, Los Angeles hosts the Tampa Bay Buccaneers (6-6) on Dec. 15 and then the Broncos four days later in a game that was flexed into Thursday Night Football. They finish the season with road games at New England (3-10) and Las Vegas (2-10). While it might not look like the Chargers could get sucked into a race for the final AFC wild card spot, the next three games should be telling.
Bengals (4-8) at Cowboys (5-7), 8:15 p.m. Monday: Another likely low-impact game, but thinking ahead to the need for Denver to lose again if the Colts win in Week 15, a motivated and still-alive Bengals team could make things difficult for the Broncos at Paycor Stadium in Week 17.
